This week brings essential financial updates for Peru, Mexico, and Chile, with their first-quarter GDP figures set for launch
In Mexico, consultants predict the ultimate first-quarter GDP determine will affirm weak progress.
Nonetheless, March information may point out recovering exercise and stronger progress within the second quarter.
In Chile, robust first-quarter GDP progress could lead the central financial institution to sluggish easing, chopping charges to six% with potential for additional reductions.
In Peru, first-quarter GDP information will probably present continued restoration in exercise and home demand after final yr’s downturn, in response to analysts.
Weekly Financial Updates: GDP in Peru, Mexico, Chile; Mexico’s Inflation. (Picture Web replica)
In Argentina, financial analysts anticipate that March exercise information will probably point out a big drop in Q1 GDP.
It’s anticipated that the president will meet with most governors on Might 25 to hunt help for his reform package deal.
Argentina
On Tuesday, Might 21, they may publish the Financial Exercise Index for March 2024. Specialists forecasts a month-to-month variation of -1.0% and an annual change of -6.9%.
This could carry the three-month common to -3.6% quarter-over-quarter and -4.8% year-over-year for the primary quarter.
Earlier information confirmed declines in key exercise sectors: manufacturing fell 6.3% month-over-month, development dropped 14.2%, and mining, which had been growing, fell 2.8%.
Chile
On Monday, Might 20, officers will publish the first-quarter GDP for 2024.
Specialists challenge a 2.5% year-over-year progress, aligning with a 2.0% quarterly improve after a 0.1% rise within the fourth quarter of 2023.
Specialists count on a price minimize to six.0% from 6.5%, following earlier cuts of 75 foundation factors in April and 100 foundation factors in January.
This could complete a 525 foundation level discount because the easing cycle started in July.
Colombia
On Tuesday, Might 21, officers will launch the March 2024 commerce steadiness.
The desire probably displaying a rise within the deficit to $1.54 billion from February’s $763 million and the earlier yr’s $1.08 billion.
The information suggests a sluggish restoration in exercise and home demand. Export revenues rose to $3.83 billion, whereas imports elevated to $5.37 billion, in response to preliminary figures.
Mexico
On Monday, Might 20, retail gross sales for March 2024 might be printed. They probably rose 2.1% year-over-year, affected by fewer working days on account of Easter holidays.
This suggests one other month-to-month improve following a 0.4% rise, in response to Hernández and Dupita.
On Thursday, Might 23, the ultimate first-quarter GDP for 2024 might be introduced.
Specialists estimate progress revised up from 1.6% to 1.7% year-over-year, in keeping with a 0.2% quarterly improve after a 0.1% rise within the fourth quarter.
The identical day, they may reveal the Financial Exercise Index for March 2024, projecting a 1.05% year-over-year decline.
Seasonally adjusted forecasts indicate a 0.8% month-over-month rise after a 1.4% improve in February.
They will even launch the Client Value Index inflation information for early Might 2024, with economists anticipating a 4.70% year-over-year rise, up from 4.67% in late April.
Moreover, the Central Financial institution’s financial coverage assembly minutes might be accessible.
Analysts anticipate a hawkish tone, detailing the upkeep of the 11% price after a 25 foundation level minimize in March.
On Friday, Might 24, they may publish the April 2024 commerce steadiness, probably displaying a $1.52 billion surplus.
Peru
On Thursday, Might 23, the first-quarter GDP for 2024 might be launched.
Analysts estimate a 1.4% year-over-year progress, implying a 0.5% quarterly improve after a 0.4% rise within the fourth quarter.
Development will sluggish sooner or later, remaining beneath pre-pandemic ranges, accorrding to some consultants.
They cite rising unemployment and extended political uncertainty as ongoing challenges.
